Protecting Ithaca from Computer Chaos
August 1998
by Paul Glover
Ithaca HOURS
hours@lightlink.com
http://www.lightlink.com/ithacahours
Paul Glover is the creator of the groundbreaking Ithaca HOURS local
currency system in Ithaca, New York, home of Cornell University. This article
is one of the most realistic and constructive overviews I've seen, of what
a
community or region can do to prepare for Y2K. Please circulate it widely
-- Dan Drasin
Normal life could continue beyond January 1, 2000. However, there's strong
evidence that disruptions of food and fuel supplies could bring us a colder,
hungrier winter.
That's because our national economy is thoroughly dependent on computers
to manufacture, transport and count everything. And many corporate and government
computers have been trained to believe that year 2000 is 1900. Those that
do will shut down or spread malfunction.
(See www.y2knews.com and www.y2kinvestor.com/sites.htm.)
While the national economy depends on computers, the local economy could,
with genuine planning, carry us through serious disruptions of national
supplies. Here's what could happen, and what Ithaca can do to become secure.
Some of these proposed solutions may seem extraordinary; they but reflect
potentially severe situations.
Fuel
Without fuel, our food would not travel to stores, water would not move
to hydrants or homes, telephones would silence, buildings would freeze,
and cars would stop. When enough computers collapse, life will get very
tough, because computers manage the extraction, refining, transport of and
payment for fuels. They manage the manufacture of the myriad tools needed
for these processes. Assuming our top priorities are to provide food, water
and warmth, we can do several things:
TO RETAIN WARMTH: Our prime effort (beyond weatherization) should be to
superinsulate housing, which reduces residential fuel consumption by up
to 87%. INHS has already created such a model here.
The Finger Lakes Energy Co-op (FLEC) could put dozens of people to work
insulating, by paying them Ithaca HOURS (issued to FLEC as a grant). HOURS
would be accepted by every landlord and merchant in the Ithaca area because
the City, towns and County would agree to accept HOURS for tax payments.
These governments would then pay their employees partly with HOURS. We'd
gain secure housing and create dozens of new jobs, while recapturing to
the local economy many millions of dollars which would otherwise have gone
yearly to NYSEG. These dollars retained would stimulate new business and
job creation, which then expands local sales tax collection, which sustains
essential public works employment.
[NOTE: "HOURS" are Ithaca's basic unit of local
currency, nominally equal to
an hour of labor, and convertible to dollars at the rate of $10/HOUR. -dan.]
Residents should be prepared for an extreme emergency also--massive power
failure--by organizing to reside in Cornell buildings which are heated by
Cornell's own primarily coal-fired power plant, rather than from the national
grid. The Cornell campus store, underground, is a model of superinsulation.
Cornell's state facilities are owned by the people of New York state, who
may need them for something more urgent than study. Larger stockpiles of
coal should be laid in at Cornell before Year 2000, to extend the existing
45-day supply.
TO PROVIDE FOOD: Since most of our food is cultivated, harvested, processed,
packaged, transported and retailed by large corporations which depend on
computer linkages, food supplies could become irregular. And prices could
rise. If we want to be sure to eat, we should not depend on imported winter
food from California and Mexico. Locally, an estimated 80 acres of nonchemical
(manure slurry) hydroponic double-walled thermopane greenhousing could grow
enough winter vegetables for the population of the City of Ithaca. Buffalo,
New York uses industrial wasteland for such purposes (NYT 3/3/98). The likeliest
place in the City for this facility would be the Southwest Park.
Local survivalists are already stockpiling food, some using the fallout
shelters built here during the early 60s. Yet they'd not likely survive
the hunger of fellow citizens smashing through their doors. To make sure
everyone is fed, the City could create food storage facilities (granaries
and root cellars) and contract with regional farms for part of their harvests.
Storage facilities could be operated by an independent nonprofit which also
contracts with local grocers and sells direct at the Farmer's Market. This
is simply an extension of Community-Supported Agriculture (CSA), which has
already taken root here. Residential attached solar greenhouses can both
capture more heat and produce food.
Public support for regional farms is the best investment we can make for
our children. Further conversion of topsoil into suburbs is an attack on
future generations. We can expand farmland retention by right-to-farm laws,
and by removing County taxes from active farms smaller than 100 acres which
market 50% of their harvest through local outlets.
Were a full food crisis to overtake the nation, local farms, community gardens
& greenhouses, aquaculture and urban orchards could keep us alive. The
City itself should plant fruit trees and berry bushes.
TO PROVIDE WATER: First, water districts should stockpile a year's supply
of fuel, while sponsoring water conservation measures. Second, we can cut
our need for household water in half by manufacturing waterless composting
toilets (which are odorless and create safe topsoil), and by installing
cisterns to catch rooftop rainwater. Sounds primitive? Consider the alternatives,
with fuel shortage.
[NOTE: In Australia, a lagre percentage of the domestic
water supply comes
from rooftop catchment -dan.]
TO PROVIDE TRANSPORT: Supply of cars and car parts is extensively computerized.
Even if GM and Chrysler are ready for 2000, many essential component suppliers
will not function beyond 2000. The fueling of cars, trucks, and snowplows
also becomes problematic. Transit thus becomes imperative, to move people
and goods efficiently. Bus routes can be expanded, but buses have 8-year
lifespans and cost $250,000 each.
More primary reliance can be placed on trollies for reduced long-term fuel
cost (trolleys here were once powered by water falling in Six Mile Creek).
Railroad grades still exist which connect Stewart Park to Buttermilk Park
to South Hill to Brooktondale, and which connect Cass Park to Trumansburg,
and Cortland to Brooktondale via Cornell. Light rail can be re-installed
to connect the West End to Cornell, and can link Lansing and Ithaca along
Route 13.
Most crosstown trips, especially within the valley, could be conveniently
accomplished with bicycles. To do this we'll need safe and separate bike
lanes.
[NOTE: Electric motorscooters, and electrically assisted
bikes and trikes such
as the successful ZAP <http://zapbikes.com>,
can be recharged using small
generators, very modest solar/wind/hydro electric systems, or even automobile
electrical systems, using very little gasoline. -dan.]
TO MAINTAIN HEALTH: The physical and emotional stress of this disruption
will challenge public health. Conventional medical care itself may be limited
by shortages of food, fuel, medicines and money. As if current services
were not already too expensive, we must reinforce locally-reliant emergency
technologies during any crisis.
The Ithaca Health Fund and HOURS have connected hundreds of practitioners
and clients via local currency. We intend to start a nonprofit dental clinic
and Wellness Center. Personal health is a public health issue.
TO PROVIDE HOUSEHOLD SUPPLIES: Many tons of perfectly re-usable clothes
and furniture are buried in landfills yearly. Thousands of students throw
away computers, top brand clothes and fresh food in unopened containers
when they leave town. The Student Recycling Project has already recaptured
a fraction of these goods for resale at garage sale prices. Their model
can expand with a large storage facility, truck fleet, and retail outlet.
Finance
Everyone expects to get paid. Millions of tasks by billions of workers combine
to make products which keep us alive. Computers handle a large part of the
credit transfers, which entitle workers to obtain food and fuel when it
is available.
However, many banks are expected to scramble accounts; ATMs may shut down;
some credit cards may jam. Even large U.S. banks and corporations which
manage to prepare for 2000 can expect to be dragged into confusion by the
noncompliant banks of the Third World, and by noncompliant small suppliers.
The stock market will likely reflect this chaos: 83% of U.S. Y2K project
managers expect the Dow Jones to fall by at least 20% (Y2K Wire 5/15/98).
TO SUSTAIN TRADE: When we are forced to produce and trade locally without
stable dollars, we will need to expand the supply of local money. Ithaca
HOURS directly reflect the value of labor, therefore they can measure local
effort without depending on the unpredictable swings in global dollar markets.
To trade HOURS independent of dollar prices, we'll need to create a local
catalog of Ithaca HOUR values. We could convene a community congress to
recommend new HOUR prices for labor and goods, while allowing everyone to
negotiate HOUR values independently.. The disruption of the macroeconomy
might change existing labor priorities. During a severe crisis, essential
survival skills, especially physical skills, become more valuable. Thus,
one hour of farm work producing food might be more highly paid than one
hour of legal advice.
In the worst case, without reliable dollars, Ithaca HOURS will function
to the extent that Tompkins County becomes self-reliant in the production
of necessary goods, and to the extent other communities are prepared to
properly issue their own HOURS and trade them with us.
Likelier less extreme yet serious disturbance would permit us to expand
the HOUR supply more gradually. In either case, we'd be prudent to back
HOUR issuance with fundamentals like landholdings, local natural gas drilling
rights (by eminent domain), shares in local harvests, etc. This would enable
us to readjust the HOUR supply (by commodity redemption) were the dollar
supply to regain credibility.
Confidence in the expanded HOUR supply could also be secured by local banks
which want to contribute to the solvency of the local economy, by backing
HOURS, with donations of rental and idle rural landholdings. This would
permit us to issue larger HOUR loans at zero percent interest, to jump-start
a damaged economy. While current HOUR loans average about 40 HOURS ($400),
major loans for essential functions would become available. As priorities,
farmers could receive HOUR loans to hire laborers, and essential public
works could be maintained.
We can maximize local production for local needs by creating an import replacement
system, which inventories and connects regional raw materials, skills and
markets. HOUR Town, which already provides this service, received unanimous
City Council approval for a $35,000 HUD grant to expand these capacities,
in 1996, but HUD failed to carry through.
Typically, during any serious economic crisis, demand rises for redistribution
of wealth from the rich to the poor, by legislation, food riots, and revolutions.
If it becomes terribly difficult to be poor here, then it will become inconvenient
to be rich here. To ensure an orderly transition which respects all persons
and basic property, rather than risking violent upheaval, Ithacans can work
together to bring us all through intact. With civic planning, we can have
good lives after computers. Maybe even better ones.
* * *
Glover is founder of Citizen Planners of Los Angeles (1983). He is author
of "Where Does Ithaca's Food Come From" (1987) and "Ithaca
Power" (Ithaca's fuel supply, 1988), and holds a degree in City Management.