Many computers, programs and embedded chips (like those in your
car and VCR) have a bug in their date records that will mess them
up on January 1, 2000. Programmers dropped the first two digits
of the year to save time and computer memory, so that the date
goes from "99" to "00". This can result in
a wide variety of malfunctions, many of them unpredictable. Although
the problem is easily described, it is exceedingly complex and
time-consuming to correct. There are literally billions of lines
of code to be fixed, many of them decades old, jerry-rigged and
undocumented. Worst of all, more time must be spent testing the
fixes than doing them in the first place. Thousands of businesses,
organizations and agencies haven't even begun to investigate their
own Year 2000 problems -- to say nothing of those of the outside
systems they depend on. As time goes by, it is becoming increasingly
obvious that millions of computer-dependent systems in all sectors
of our economy and society will simultaneously begin malfunctioning
one way or another early in 2000 -- with problems in one system
leading to problems in otherwise healthy systems. Certain social
dynamics are impeding timely correction or increasing the chance
of social disturbances both before and after New Years Day 2000.
(If you want more information about the Year 2000 problem, itself,
click here.) Unfortunately, there
is absolutely no way to predict how all this will play out.
So we are going to hit the iceberg. But none of us knows
whether it will just knock some plates off the shelves or sink
the ship. And we won't know that until after its over -- and even
then, loss of our mass communication systems may leave us in mystery
about what is going on elsewhere.
How do we respond to such a weird prospect?
Return to Y2K home to explore
some creative ways we might respond, which could even give us
a better world when the dust settles.
Here is the best one-page summary I've found so far. -- Tom
compiled by Kay Hagan and Cathy Hope
We are distributing this fact sheet to encourage you to begin
educating yourself and your community about the potential disruptions
that may result from the "Year 2000" problem. We are
two average citizens with no affiliations to any institutions,
corporations, or government agencies. Please copy and circulate
widely.
THE SITUATION:
Most mainframe computers over ten years old, and microchips over
three years old -- and many personal computers, applications and
databases -- were not programmed to handle a four-digit year.
To them, 1998 is just "98," 1982 is just "82,"
etc. While the reasons for this oversight made sense at the time
(because computer memory was scarce, every space-saving measure
was used), the turn of the millennium may cause these computers,
chips and programs to malfunction. These computer systems and
devices may simply stop, or start spewing "garbage"
data, or make faulty calculations. Because there are less than
18 months before the year 2000, and because there are more than
180 billion lines of code-and countless "embedded" microchips-that
need to be screened all over the world, there is not enough time
to fix the problem before computers start to react. Many people
have been working on it, and there simply is not enough time.
There will be consequences. This situation is referred to as "Y2K"
(K signifying 1000), the millennium "bug" or "bomb",
or just "the Year 2000 problem."
THE PROBLEM: Even if you do not normally use a computer at home
or at work, and even if you avoid unnecessary "technology,"
this problem will likely affect your daily life, possibly in dramatic
and disturbing ways. Why? Because we live in a world that relies
on satellites, air, rail, and ground transportation, manufacturing
plants, electricity, heat, telephones, and television-all of which
are connected in "networks" of interdependent processes.
Financial and banking systems, utilities, government, healthcare,
defense-all of these systems rely on computers. This global network
is largely invisible to us because it has worked so well, so far.
But as random computer systems in various aspects of society begin
to fail, they will likely cause "cascading failures"
in the systems that are part of their network, and we will become
aware, quickly, of our level of dependence.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Analysts' opinions vary from predicting the
"end of life as we know it"-a catastrophic scenario
where all our infrastructures fail and society is thrown into
chaos-to those who say it will simply be experienced as a "bump
in the road." However, there are three commonly shared views
by all who are analyzing the problem (even the most optimistic):
first, we cannot fix it in the time we have left; second, there
will be consequences that we feel in daily life; and third, the
failures of the systems will compound the challenge of fixing
the original problem. No one can predict exactly what will occur,
but it is safe to assume that the infrastructures that form the
foundation for our daily activities-for instance, electrical power-will
become unreliable for an undetermined amount of time. We will
be forced to find other ways to do things, and we may experience
shortages of food and other supplies as transportation systems
are disrupted.
WHAT WE CAN DO: We can educate ourselves, our beloveds, our neighbors,
and our communities. We can begin to prepare ourselves for the
potential and probable disruptions in daily life. We can ask our
service providers, local businesses and government official about
their level of preparedness, and how we can help them. The best
way to insure that you are safe and cared for is to make sure
your neighbor feels safe and cared for. "Adopt a crisis mentality
without falling into panic." We are all in this together.
THE GOOD NEWS: Regardless of the level of consequences-whether
this turns out to be a "bump in the road" or a major
worldwide catastrophe-the work we do to create trusting relationships
and to build our communities will serve us well as a society.
The era of restoration will benefit from these efforts, and we
can take this opportunity to rethink some of the ways society
has operated in the last few decades.
[If you are printing this out for other people, you can add a "FOR MORE INFORMATION" section here listing your favorite references -- books, websites, contact numbers, etc.]